Here you can find all the Forecasting Forge learning resources.

Adding Weather Data to Forecasts

September 22, 2021

A lot of different types of business are influenced by the weather. Some ecommerce sites see an uptick during bad weather when more people are looking at their screens. Other businesses sell products that customers only start thinking about buying during certain weather conditions; this can range from barbecues at one end of the scale to hats and gloves at the other. You can probably think of a few other interesting examples from your own experience.

Adding historic weather data to your forecast can help quantify the link between weather conditions and business outcomes and it can also help make for a better forecast for the future. For example if you sell a lot of barbecues on the first hot weekend in May then, without the weather data, the forecasting algorithm can’t know what has caused this and will see a lot of random variation. This random variation is assumed to continue in the future so you will end up with:

  1. A forecast that does not take into account the weather forecast
  2. A forecast with a wider predictive interval than necessary

Weather data can be a very useful addition. Forecast Forge now provides some custom functions to help you include this in your forecasts.

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Anomaly Detection in Google Sheets

January 29, 2021

What is Anomaly Detection?

Anomaly Detection is identifying “anomalous” data.

Usually it means using machine learning to identify outliers but you can do anomaly detection with any v1.0 human eyeball too.

Aside from all the complexities of machine learning an important difficulty is knowing what an anomaly is. Sometimes it is entirely expected to have some data that is very different to the rest.

Forecast Forge is focussed on timeseries data; data where each observation is associated with a specific time. An anomaly is then where an observation is very different from what we would expect given the trend and seasonality in the data.

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Scheduled forecasts and Google Data Studio

January 21, 2021

Because Forecast Forge works as part of Google Sheets you can include Forecast Forge forecasts in your Data Studio reports. And with addons like the official Google Analytics spreadsheet addon you can schedule these reports to update and run automatically.

Here’s how it works

First you will need to get setup with the Google Analytics spreadsheet addon. You can do this easily be following the instructions.

Once you have the addon installed you can create a report in the sidebar:

For Forecast Forge you must have date as a dimension. If you add other dimensions you’ll have to do some funky spreadsheet wizardry to get everything formatted correctly but I’m sure that is possible.

Once you’ve created the report the addon will create a new sheet called “Report Configuration” in your spreadsheet that looks a bit like this:

There are a few edits you will probably want to make to this sheet:

  1. The start date
  2. The number of rows returned

The start date can be a specific date (e.g. 2020-01-01) or NdaysAgo where N is a positive integer. You can also use Sheets formula to configure the date if you want (e.g. =EOMONTH(TODAY(), -1)).

Using a fixed start date vs. a variable start date changes how the forecast can be used. I’ll start by showing you a variable start date example in this tutorial.

When you have finished the configuration, click “Run Report” in the menu to pull the data into Google Sheets.

The addon will create another new sheet and you should see it populated with some lovely Google Analytics data.

If you scroll to the bottom of the sheet you will notice that the date fills the sheet right to the end.

To keep things clean and separate I prefer to make the forecast in a separate sheet.

Because the Google Analytics data will always contain the same number of days (this will get a lot more complicated if you add other dimensions!) it is easy to pull the dates and metrics into another sheet:

Just use a formula!

Then extend the dates column into the future for as many days as you want to forecasts:

+1 adds one day

Then make your forecast. For the scheduled updates to work you must use the custom functions for this rather than the sidebar. I suggest you follow my forecasting workflow to figure out what makes the best forecast for your data and then implement it using the custom functions.

Yours will probably be a bit more complicated than this

When the forecast has run it should look something like this:

Label the forecast columns in row 1 if you are later going to import this into Data Studio.

Next setup the scheduled update:

Running hourly won’t help you very much but you can select daily, weekly or monthly for automatic updates.

Import into Data Studio

In Data Studio you need to setup your Google Sheet as a new data source:

And then add the columns from the sheets as metrics for display:

Make sure you add the metric (in this case Sessions) and the forecast (Forecast). You can add the upper and lower bounds too if you want them included in your report.

I like to restrict the date range of the Data Studio report so that the viewer doesn’t have to see all the training data; they can just see the most relevant parts. Remember to extend this date range into the future to include the forecast.

Using this you will be able to produce tables and charts that contain both historical data and the forecast from your Google Sheet. These will update when the Google Sheet updates on the schedule you specified earlier.

Tip: I find line charts easier to work with than timeseries charts
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Using the Sidebar Menu

October 5, 2020

The early tutorials have shown you how to make forecasts using the FORGE_FORECAST function. You can also make forecasts by using the sidebar; this tutorial will show you how to do this and some of the extra features you can use when making a forecast this way.

You can watch this video for a quick demo of how things work and bit of explanation. Or read on below…

The first thing you will have to do is open the sidebar if it isn’t open already.

After a short loading period you should see it appear on the right of your screen:

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How Good is my Forecast?

September 3, 2020

If you have enough data then the Forecast Forge addon will estimate how accurate your forecast is likely to be.

How it works

We don’t know what will happen in the future so it is impossible to be certain how good or bad your forecast will be. But we can use the same forecasting algorithm to make a forecast for the recent past and then compare how accurate that forecast is against what actually happened.

For example, you might pretend you don’t know what happened between April 2019 and April 2020 (and I think we’d all like to imagine this didn’t happen at all!) and use the data from April 2017 to March 2019 to feed into the forecasting algorithm.

Then you can compare the results of this forecast with the actual data for 2019/20 to see how good the forecasting algorithm is at predicting with your data.

    You have this data
2018       2019        2020
               And you want to forecast this

    Use this data
2018       2019        2020
                 To forecast this

Measuring Error

The Forecast Forge addon shows you four different ways of measuring the error. They are each useful in different circumstances.

Every error metric is based on the daily errors; the difference between the actual value and the forecast value for each day in the forecast.

1. ME - Mean Error

Take all the error values and find the mean.

This is the simplest error metric but it doesn’t always tell you the full story because positive and negative errors (where the forecast over- and under-estimates) can cancel each other out.

The main thing the Mean Error tells you is whether the forecast tends to overestimate (positive error) or underestimate (negative error).

2. MAE - Mean Absolute Error

Take the absolute value of the errors (i.e. make them all positive) and then find the mean.

This fixes the problem with Mean Error described above.

3. RMSE - Root Mean Squared Error

Square all the error values, find the mean of this and then take the square root.

This is a very commonly used error metric in machine learning. I strongly suggest you try to minimise this error when working to improve your forecasts unless you have a very good reason not to.

However, this can be a bit harder to understand than the other error metrics so once you have your model figured out you can report MAE or MAPE to your clients who aren’t elbows deep in forecasting.

4. MAPE - Mean Absolute Percentage Error

Find the error values as a percentage, take the absolute value and then calculate the mean of this.

This is a very useful error metric because it is a percentage; it doesn’t matter what scale the values being forecast are.

For example, imagine I tell you that I’ve made a forecast for average order value (AOV) and that my MAE is 15. Is this good or bad?

It is impossible to say without knowing more about the average order value. If it is very high (e.g. over $200) then 15 is quite good. If it is very low (e.g. $20) then 15 is very bad!

But if you have a MAPE of 10% then you don’t need to know how big or small the AOV is to assess how much of a problem the error might be.

For more detail on running backtests manually or using other error metrics read the Backtesting Forecasts to Estimate Future Accuracy post.

I Think You’ll Find It’s a Bit More Complicated Than That

As with just about everything, it’s a bit more complicated than that!

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